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Our prediction
OV1.5
Predicts if total goals will be over 1 goals
High
confidence
Value analysis
+7% edge · ValueOur model rates this 7% more likely than the odds imply — a potential value edge.
Fenerbahçe earned a hard-fought 1-0 victory away against Sturm Graz in the UEFA Champions League on 11 August 2026. Ismail Kartal deployed his team in a 4-2-3-1 formation, while Fabio Ingolitsch set up the Austrian hosts in a 4-4-2 shape.
The first half was a tightly contested affair under Spanish referee Alejandro Hernandez. Opportunities were limited before the break, though Fenerbahçe accumulated two cautions as N. Semedo was booked in the 40th minute and A. Brown received a card in the 45th minute. The sides went into the tunnel locked at 0-0.
Both managers attempted to alter the match around the hour mark. Sturm Graz made a triple substitution in the 61st minute, bringing on A. Kayombo, S. Jatta, and A. Malic. Fenerbahçe made changes of their own, introducing M. Greenwood and M. Asensio in the 63rd minute after replacing N. Semedo a minute earlier. The breakthrough arrived in the 66th minute when Talisca scored the decisive goal to put Fenerbahçe ahead.
Fenerbahçe managed their advantage carefully, sending on N. Kante in the 73rd minute before goalscorer Talisca was substituted in the 77th minute. Tempers flared late on, resulting in yellow cards for Sturm Graz's F. Ingolitsch in the 80th minute and J. Mitchell in the 84th minute, while Fenerbahçe's K. Akturkoglu saw yellow in the 89th minute.
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The final whistle confirmed a 1-0 win for the visitors, extending Fenerbahçe's strong head-to-head record. In their last four meetings, Fenerbahçe have now claimed three victories while Sturm Graz remain winless against the Turkish side.
Sturm Graz take on Fenerbahçe in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday, 11 August 2026. Below is our data-driven preview and prediction for this fixture, based on head-to-head history and recent form.
Final result: Sturm Graz 0–1 Fenerbahçe. Fenerbahçe won the match.
In their last 4 meetings, Sturm Graz have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 2 against Fenerbahçe. These fixtures have averaged 1.8 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
Defensively, Sturm Graz kept 0 clean sheets and Fenerbahçe kept 1 across those meetings, giving a useful guide to how tight this matchup tends to be.
Our prediction for Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe is Predicts if total goals will be over 1 goals with a 90% confidence rating at odds of 1.2. This tip is informed by the head-to-head trends above, including the 1.8 goals-per-game average and 50% both-teams-to-score rate.
